Often confused as Shitadel by many. If you don't know anything about them this is a solid team out of the Southern Conference and they'll be on the road against Furman a team they beat by 10 at home. Now often I fall into the revenge at home spot, but here I can't help but back Citadel. They have played well on the road despite their 5-7 record as they are 4-3 in conference road games and 5-2 ATS where they were dogs 5 of the 7 games. They could easily be 7-0 on the road in conference play as they have lost their 3 conference road games by a combined 8 points. So just who did they lose to in the other 4 games on the road? Well there is quality teams like Missouri State, West Virginia, Texas A&M and Houston to name a few. The strength of schedule that Citadel faced earlier in the season is definitely paying off.
Furman is getting outscored in conference play by -1.8ppg, but at home they are +2.8ppg while Citadel translates +2.9ppg and -5.4 away, but as I mentioned they have faced a significant out of conference road schedule. In the conference they are playing much better and their shooting percentage is 43.9% up 1.8% from what their average says on the road. They are shooting threes in conference road games (gyms they are used to playing in) at 47.9% compared to their overall 33.6% away average. That should be a cause for concern for Furman that is allowing opponents to shoot 40.4% from beyond the arch in home conference games. What I like about this play the most though is the defense Citadel can play on the road. They are significantly better defensive club particularly from the perimeter where in conference road games they are holding opponents to 30.5% shooting. The three teams that Furman did beat at home have an average RPI of 257 and neither one of them are under 250. Citadel will come in and roll and I wouldn't be shocked to see them win easily.
Tulsa over Duke here tonight. remember the name Ben Uzoh in this match up as he will go up against Duke's Nolan Smith. I believe Tulsa is a bubble team that can get it done against Duke or keep it within 19 points at least. Uzoh is faster and might even be stronger than Nolan and as we know guard play is a huge factor when it comes time for upsets or scares down the stretch. Tulsa is a team that can surprise a few. They have wins in the regular season over Oklahoma State and Colorado.
This is your typical reverse line movement revenge play here. FAU was in the first match up right to the end but lost the game by 7 because A. they gave up 51% shooting, and B. they shot 58% from the field. Now that they are home where they are 9-2 this year they shot 68% from the line and only give up 46% from the field. Western Kentucky on the other hand is just 3-8 on the road and average 41% from the field. I expect FAU to get the outright victory.
